Alexandru Solcan // The Presidential market: we have everything
The electoral campaign for the presidential election started now officially. We know the list of registered candidates. We have of all kinds: system-candidates and anti-system-candidates, pro-European candidates and pro-Russian candidates, constructive candidates and destructive; shortly, we have spoilers and clones. We have everything, the saying of "Planeta Moldova" show! Is that what we wanted? And yes, and no. Do we need this now? Surely, not! A thing is clear: most majority of citizens hope that the results of the elections will influence for the better the way things are done in the country.
Initially there were 25 candidates, but succeeded to register only 16 of them, real chances have 5, will remain 2 and after that only 1. If considering the electoral segment that bet on the favorite of the campaign, Igor Dodon, in the second tour his opponent will be someone from the Maia Sandu, Andrei Nastase, Marian Lupu or Iurie Leanca list. That is what the surveys say. As for the independents, the surveys are taking into considerations only Valeriu Ghiletchii.
Actually, on the electoral ring, there are three forces that are fighting. One of them is represented by the exponents of the Western vector. It is amazing how viable can be an existent project when you have at your disposal a massive propaganda arsenal and a politically disillusioned and intoxicated citizen. Dodon have the highest chances. His accedes to the second round is guaranteed inclusively by the other candidates, that operate on the same electoral segment (quite commanding, we can say). Here, from PN's behalf, is competing Dmitri Ciubashenko, who's chances are illusory.
The second force is formed by the exponents of the Topa and Filat clan. Although Topa brothers are condemned by the court and fled the country, and Filat is convicted as well to 9 years of jail, because of them, that saying, it is alive. This group is represented by Maia Sandu and Andrei Nastase. For a little while the word of a single nominee is spreading, but, as we say, the chances are weak. If, although, there will be a miracle and the single candidate will be identified, than the fight for the second place will be very tight.
The third option is the parties from that are governing. The highest chances here has Marian Lupu. On behalf of the PD President are local Party organisations, administrative resources and the most solid media holding from the country. There is also Mihai Ghimpu who, this time, to officially declare the unification with Romania as the highest priority of the Liberals in this Presidential campaign. According to all the probabilities, in this campaign pushing on unionism will not make the difference. This is happening because of the protagonists of the message. It is also crowded on this segment: here was not identified a single candidate as well.
There is also of course Iurie Leanca. The emanation of PLDM from the old days, the head of all ratings of premiership period, Leanca has fallen in the disgrace of the chief from back there, and after that of the others who stayed in the Party. This happened at the same time when Iurie Leanca insisted, when he still was a Prime Minister, on the Kroll's investigation over the Bank fraud. Afterwards, the former Party colleagues tried to put on Leanca's shoulders, "a simple Prime-Minister", how he defined himself back there, all the sins of his government. And, the most of them succeeded. With all the support that he has from the Western partners of development, Iurie Leanca does not benefit for now, in surveys, for the score that he desires. Although, from all the candidates, the leader of PPEM seems to be the most prepared for the chair of the President. As we can see, at our voters have a better feedback from a lie than a true and coherent speech. It is extraordinary if the government realizes the danger of Dodon's vitory, from the start would take a step back and support Leanca - the exponent of the constructive opposition. Unfortunately, it was meant to be. Leanca has at least at the present time, small chances to accede in the second tour.
Who will be the opponent of Dodon in the second round? That is the question! ... It's hard to say. Even if they decide on a single candidate, it does not mean that the supporters of Sandu will vote blindly for Nastase or vice versa. On the other hand, the PD candidate, having available an impressive arsenal of organizational, administrative and media resources, surely, will continue to increase in the voters' options. However to what extent Marian Lupu will be able to attract the votes of the followers of Maia Sandu and (or) Andrei Nastase's? Maia Sandu or Nastase, without PD electorate's votes, will get in the second round? Here I have big question marks. Many of their followers, without their own candidate, will prefer in the second round, to stay at home, and it increases the chances of Igor Dodon to win the elections.
About the fact that in the Republic of Moldova conditions the direct election of the president is a waste of time, resources and efforts as was written before. However, as Shakespeare said, “In all evil there is a bit of good”. After a long period of time, the politics in Chisinau becomes more personalized. The score obtained by the candidates (many of whom are also party leaders) will have a direct impact on their subsequent positioning within the party. Some of them - who today are still dreaming to become presidents of the country - will have to state that the options of the voters, is not rising even at the margin of error. Normally, will come resignations of honor, if, of course, through ambition and vanity, this still is a value shared by our party leaders.
We must admit that among those 16 registered candidates are persons of all tastes and demands of the electorate. We can not grumble that we do not have for whom to vote. You want a president who, along with the current government, to be actively involved in the implementation of the Association Agreement with the European Union? Vote for Marian Lupu, Iurie Leanca, Mihai Ghimpu and Valeriu Ghiletchi. You want scandals, shows and confrontation? Vote for Dodon, Nastase, Dumitru Ciubasenko and Maia Sandu (even if his last messages are more temperate). It is possible that after some reflections, our option would migrate to the next one in the preferences top, ranked with greater chances, so that the vote would not be lost. That would be reasonable. In addition, in the second round, many of us, as usually, we will leave ourselves in the hands of the smallest evil.